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Jamie Dupree

Did Pennsylvania Really Change Anything?

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Jamie Dupree
@ April 23, 2008 1:35 AM
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Even though Hillary Clinton easily won the Pennsylvania Primary, the blunt question of Vice President Cheney keeps ringing in my ears.  "So?"

Does the Clinton win really change anything?  Was the dynamic of this race altered?

One thing Clinton may have accomplished is making sure that there won't be a massive superdelegate move to Obama, at least not this week.  Clinton's win, in a sense, freezes most of the superdelegates in place for now. 

If the win had been 6 points or less, I bet there were some supers who were ready to come out and say they were getting on the Obama Bandwagon.

A 10-point win makes sure that doesn't happen.

So, I ask again.  Does Pennsylvania really change anything?

No, according to Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

"Hillary Clinton lost her last, best chance to make significant inroads in the pledged delegate count," said Burton in a campaign memo sent out to reporters late last night.

"The bottom line is that the Pennsylvania outcome does not change dynamic of this lengthy primary. While there were 158 delegates at stake there, there are fully 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6," Burton concluded.

The estimates right now are that Hillary Clinton might emerge with 15 more delegates than Obama from Pennsylvania.

That would mean that Clinton cut about 12% off of Obama's delegate lead.  A good chunk, but not a huge sea change or anything.  Obama will still be ahead by about 125 delegates overall.

Those are delegates that Obama might be able to win back in two weeks, especially if he can win by a decent margin in North Carolina.

Hillary's win though does give her more ammunition when she talks to uncommitted superdelegates about this nomination fight and it gives her the chance to raise more money.

There's one odd way to look at the six week dogfight in Pennsylvania in terms of money.

In a sense, Barack Obama's decision to compete hard in Pennsylvania forced Hillary Clinton to spend a lot of money as well.  Obama may have lost, but he still has lots of cash.  Hillary is running in the red.  She needs cash in a bad way.

That's why you heard her make that unusually direct appeal in her victory speech for campaign contributions.

So again, did anything change?

I would say yes, because Clinton again has more time to create some doubt in Democratic circles about Obama, that he can't win over working Democrats, that he can't win big states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, New York, New Jersey and California.

And most importantly, Hillary is still alive.  

Obama could have knocked her out in New Hampshire, on Super Tuesday, on March 4th and now on April 22nd. 

He's got another chance on May 6th.

 

 



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What others are saying

  • Democratic swing voters
    This has damaged the democratic party. By the time the party heals from this it will be too late. The party should have stopped this months ago. The party has become very short sighted of the ultimate goal. George W gave this one away, and the dems have found a way to give it right back. WOW!
  • Margin
    Regarding B.L.'s comments. Good point on the 8.6% margin, which is below the double-digit threshold. I find it interesting that 8.6% is also in the "grey zone" that Jamie wrote about yesterday. Not big enough for a significant shift in delegate counts, but not small enough to know Clinton out of the race either. So, I think the big question remains, and is going to become even bigger. Why can't he "close the deal"? And where is the Mad Hatter anyway? We're certainly in Wonderland.
  • Clinton's Win Margin
    In the interest of accuracy, with 99.09% of PA districts reporting, Hillary has 54.3% to Obama's 45.7%. That is a difference of 8.6%, which is not a double-digit win.
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