Are you a part of the News/Talk 750 WSB VIP? Sign in or join now. Why join?
Find a problem with our new site? Tell us!
Text size: A A A
Jamie Dupree

Superdelegates Stay in a Holding Pattern

By
Jamie Dupree
@ April 7, 2008 12:00 AM
Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0)
If you were too busy to check the news, the weekend didn't bring any significant changes in the Democratic race for the White House.

Only the hyper-involved will have any idea who Mark Penn is (Hillary Clinton strategist) and why they should worry about why he left the campaign (Google it.)

Heck, there are a lot of Washington insiders who believe that Mark Penn has been BAD for the Clinton campaign, so having him leave now might be a breath of fresh air.

As for superdelegates, if any chose sides this weekend, then I missed that news. We still have over 300 who are on the political sidelines, waiting to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

"The superdelegates are the only bloc of delegates where a candidate can build a large margin of support," says political analyst Anthony Corrado, who once tracked superdelegates for Walter Mondale in 1984.

"They're the biggest primary that's out there," Corrado added, and a primary that he says must be won by Clinton if she is to have any chance at winning this race.

"She's going to need a significant margin amongst this remaining group of superdelegates."

That has not been happening recently, as Obama has picked off a few in the past ten days, but really, most superdelegates seem to be sitting tight and waiting for the remaining primaries and caucuses to play out. (Find the Washington Post story from Sunday and read it.)

Evidently, one more will declare for Obama today, which makes the math even more difficult for Clinton.

As I see it, there are really only four possibilities left:

1) Obama wins in Pennslyvania - Game, Set, Match, Obama.

2) Obama wins both North Carolina and Indiana on May 6 - another Game, Set, Match, Obama scenario.

3) Hillary wins both primaries on May 6 - Katy Bar the Door if that occurs, because that really could lead to a Clinton win.

4) Obama and Hillary split the remaining contests with no big surprises through the final pair of primaries on June 3. Clinton wins PA, IN, WV, KY, PR and Obama wins NC, OR, MT and SD.

To me, the fourth option is the most likely. The superdelegates will then start coming out of the woodwork and I think things would be over within a week or so, with the edge going to Obama.

I do love all the Obama people who say things like, "You can't give the nomination to the person who won fewer votes in the primaries."

Hmmmm. Did they forget what happened in the 2000 Presidential election already? Getting the most votes in politics doesn't always mean that you are going to win.

I guess there is a fifth option, the proactive superdelegation scenario is what I would call it. In that, the supers start declaring for Obama at a rate that even if Hillary sweeps the rest of the primaries and caucuses, she still can't win. Unlikely, yes, but it is a possibility.

Categories:



0 TrackBacks

Listed below are links to blogs that reference this entry: Superdelegates Stay in a Holding Pattern.

TrackBack URL for this entry: http://wsbradio.com/blogging/mt-tb.cgi/611


Avg. rating: N/A

What others are saying

  • Option 4-A
    The final primaries are split, the super delegates pledge and Hilary declairs "What about Michagan and Florida?" And the campaign continues.....

WSB 24-Hour Weather Center
Get the 5-day Forecast .

Atlanta weather

A Few Clouds
87°F
5-day forecast | Hurricane Guide
advertisement

Marketplace

Georgia Bulldogs Radio Network
Your online connection to Larry Munson and the Georgia Bulldogs Radio Network team!
Providing simple natural gas rate plans and great outstanding service. Get Comfortable.
Mercedes-Benz - Atlanta Arts Update
The “Atlanta Arts Update”, your complete calendar of Arts events in and around Atlanta. Details
Medsfile
Build and control your own online personal heath record. Details
Stay ahead of the storm. Find evacuation routes, safety tips and more in the Hurricane Guide .
advertisement
Going Green
Help do your part to save water and reduce air pollution and greenhouse emissions. Go Green!
Read the AJC and stay on top of everything in Atlanta! Get delivery for less than $2 a week!
Join Channel 2 Action News anchors John Pruitt and Monica Pearson at 5, 6, and 11pm.