As of today, Democrats certainly don't have 218 votes locked up on health care reform in the House.

But I would bet that vote counters feel like they are heading in the right direction.

Of course, that doesn't mean something won't surface like the Great Pumpkin Rising Out Of The Pumpkin Patch to knock this effort off schedule.

Abortion is probably the # 1 candidate for that right now, and the question of whether federal dollars would go to fund abortion services.

After that, you might have some illegal immigrant issues and Blue Dog worries about whether the effort really "bends the cost curve" downward for medical spending.

Of course, you also might find votes for the bill by offering some "assurances" on other items.

A little horse trading seems very likely to be in the legislative forecast this week.

It won't surprise me to see the debate begin late in the week and maybe go through the weekend, with a vote on Tuesday the 10th.

We'll see where things go in the days ahead.