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Kirk Mellish's Weather Commentary

How wet you say?

By
Kirk Mellish
@ November 5, 2009 5:45 AM
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 PM EDT WED NOV 4 2009

...HISTORICAL RAINFALL FREQUENCY AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA IN SEPTEMBER 2009...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS BEEN REVIEWING THE EXTREME HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN SEPTEMBER 2009 WHICH CAUSED EPIC FLOODING
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN DOUGLAS...EAST
PAULDING...WEST COBB...EAST CARROLL...CENTRAL GWINNETT AND SOUTHWEST
WALKER COUNTIES EXCEEDED 10 INCHES OF RAIN DURING A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GREATEST AMOUNT WAS 16.7 INCHES JUST WEST OF DOUGLASVILLE.

THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ARE FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL FREQUENCY PERIODS IN
NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CHANCES OF RECURRENCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR...

7.2 INCHES IS 1.0 PERCENT...100 YEAR RAIN EVENT
7.7 INCHES IS 0.5 PERCENT...200 YEAR RAIN EVENT
8.2 INCHES IS 0.2 PERCENT...500 YEAR RAIN EVENT
8.7 INCHES IS 0.1 PERCENT...1000 YEAR RAIN EVENT
9.7 INCHES IS 0.05 PERCENT...5000 YEAR RAIN EVENT

USING RAINFALL FREQUENCY CALCULATIONS...IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE
CHANCES OF 10 INCHES OR MORE OCCURRING AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE LESS
THAN ONE HUNDRETH OF ONE PERCENT. THIS MEANS THE ODDS ARE 1 IN 10000
OR MORE OF RECURRENCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR...OR A 10000 YEAR RAIN EVENT.

WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES COMBINED WITH AUTOMATED HOURLY RAINGAGE
REPORTS INDICATED THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL
FOR THE WHOLE STORM EVENT WAS FROM 800 PM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 20.

After being in a drought much of the last three years, several sites across north and central Georgia has received some of the highest rainfall in the past month or so. For instance, October 2009 is the second wettest October ever at both Atlanta and Athens. The only October that had more rainfall in Atlanta was 1995 when the remnants of Hurricane Opal moved across the area early in the month bringing more than 8 inches to Atlanta over a three day period. The 2009 year in Athens will be second only to October of 1937 when Athens received 11.23 inches of rain. The following table shows the top ten wettest Octobers at Atlanta, Athens, Columbus and Macon:

Atlanta
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
199511.04
20098.71
19667.53
19597.14
19326.90
19376.30
19706.29
19156.15
19906.12
19146.04
Athens
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
193711.23
20099.14
19188.21
19147.95
19977.75
19647.73
19867.65
19777.41
18987.40
19957.29
Macon
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
19599.39
19158.46
19297.49
19947.36
19707.16
19666.61
20096.37
19936.37
19906.31
19115.96
Columbus
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
19958.41
19648.09
19596.59
20096.39
20085.48
19755.42
19945.41
19765.06
19664.70
19704.47




Looking at rainfall amounts since September 1, Athens and Macon was the wettest 61 day period for September and October on record, while Atlanta was number 2 and Columbus was number 3. It is interesting to note that the rainfall experienced this year is in no way attributable to a landfalling Tropical Storm or Hurricane. A look back through the National Hurricane Center's Archives shows that the remnants of Tropical Storm Irene impacted Columbus October 6-10th, 1959; Hurricane Dora affected Columbus September 9-12, 1964; and the remnants of Hurricane Opal impacted both Columbus and Atlanta October 3-6th, 1995. Unfortunately data on tropical storms in 1888 and 1937 was unavailable.


Atlanta
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
188818.25
200917.65
200415.84
199513.56
198913.35
192913.23
200212.33
189811.39
199211.39
198811.35
Athens
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
200919.00
198916.15
192915.56
199714.54
189813.76
200412.82
195712.66
197012.63
193711.98
191811.61
Macon
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
200917.05
200414.32
192913.44
192413.05
195912.77
200011.59
197610.62
19569.96
19159.81
19889.79
Columbus
WETTEST
YEARRAINFALL
196412.89
199512.11
200911.69
200410.83
197610.03
19599.90
19948.87
19658.80
19758.27
19518.18





For more on flood calculations scroll down my blog for the report on the "500 year flood"


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