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You cannot underestimate the gravity of Sen. Barack Obama's win here in Iowa. He drew big crowds, he motivated young people to vote and he drew many independent voters back to the Democratic Party.

And Obama did that as a black man in an overwhelmingly white state.

His theme of "change" clearly won the day, but so did his personality, which charmed many in Iowa and now has the chance to put on a repeat performance in New Hampshire next Tuesday.

Ironically, while Obama registered a strong victory in terms of the caucus vote (37-29-29% at my last check) he holds a very slim advantage in terms of delegates to the national convention. Obama won 16, Hillary Clinton won 15 and John Edwards 14. (You aren't seeing things: Hillary Clinton did finish second in delegates in Iowa.)

But I think the psyche of this race is much different than that 16-15-14 scoreboard. An Obama win in New Hampshire would put him on a roll and could prove almost impossible to stop.

Bill Clinton was the "Comeback Kid" in 1992 in New Hampshire when he finished second to Paul Tsongas. Hillary Clinton will have to find the formula for a comeback of her own by next Tuesday.

While Obama, Edwards and Clinton all survive to fight another round, that wasn't so for Senators Biden and Dodd. While they worked hard, their efforts never got off the ground, which was the gut feeling many had in DC when they announced their respective campaigns.

On the GOP side, my gut didn't lie either, as the bigger crowd today for Mike Huckabee (compared to Mitt Romney's appearance a day earlier) translated into a solid victory over Romney.

I got the chance to see Huckabee at a rally just hours before the caucuses began and it was easy to see why people like the guy. He is easy going, has a good sense of humor and seems likeable.

As for the GOP in New Hampshire, John McCain hopes to keep Romney out of first and repeat the 2000 primary victory he had over George W. Bush. It will be interesting to see how well Huckabee does in a state that's often not receptive to a mix of politics and religion.

Fear and Loathing at the Clive, Iowa Caucus

I'm sorry that it is well after midnight as I'm writing this, because I would love to go on for a couple of pages about how much fun I had covering my first real "caucus" on Thursday night.

I went to a middle school not far from my hotel that luckily had three different precinct caucuses going on at once. The turnout was astounding - standing room only in the halls as leaders of both parties said it was the biggest turnout they had ever seen on a caucus day.

The process was truly fascinating. While the Republican program is more straightforward, the Democrats have a vote, then what amounts to a horse trading session leading to some re-alignment before the final votes are counted.

In the case of this precinct, over 440 Democrats showed up, as they gave an initial short lead to Barack Obama, with Hillary Clinton second and John Edwards in third.

Then, the fun began. The Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Kucinich and Uncommitted groups began bargaining with the Obama, Edwards and Clinton camp over who deserved their votes, since they were the only ones meeting the 15% threshhold.

Spotaneous arguments broke out in the school cafeteria amongst the caucus-goers, as they tried to win over the formerly affiliated voters. Some people just got fed up and went home.

At times it got a bit heated, but for the most part, people made their choices and stuck to them with a minimum of grousing, etc.

It won't surprise me if many caucuses evolved like the one I was at, where Obama led the initial count, followed by Clinton and Edwards.

When the caucus started to re-align for a second ballot, it quickly became clear that many of the voters were not interested in joining the Clinton camp, so they migrated over to Edwards and Obama.

Sure enough, Edwards moved up into second place, with Hillary just behind in third.

One of the few people to back Dodd struggled with which candidate to support. She was in line for the Hillary Clinton group, but backed out as soon as they started counting. She ended up going for Edwards.

Meanwhile, the votes were being counted in the basement for the GOP, which also had a record turnout in this precinct.

The winner in the Clive, IA precinct was Mike Huckabee, with Mitt Romney in second, just like the outcome in the rest of the state.

Next Tuesday it is New Hampshire - and we'll be there to bring you more coverage on the radio, with Neal Boortz and here on the web.


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