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January 5, 2008

After easy victories in the Iowa caucuses by Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, the race for the White House gets a bit more complicated in New Hampshire.

There will be several debates this weekend, which always raise the possibility of a gaffe or great one-liner by a candidate that could alter the races one way or another.

New Hampshire would seem to be fertile ground for Obama and his message of hope and change. Watch for polls this weekend to see how much of a bounce he gets out of Iowa. It won't be a surprise if he wins the first primary of 2008.

With such a short run to the Tuesday primary, the big question for Hillary Clinton is what do you change in the election playbook? How do you raise doubts about Obama without going overly negative and maybe further hurting your own chances?

There are a variety of answers obviously. One might be to embrace the "Comeback Kid" record of her husband from 1992, when Bill Clinton finished second in New Hampshire and re-energized his candidacy.

Hilary Clinton could also emphasize that she actually finished second in terms of Iowa delegates, only one behind Obama and one in front of Edwards. As of now, she still leads the overall delegate race when superdelegates are included.

On issues, maybe the best post-Iowa pivot would be to talk more about the health of the economy, which again showed signs of weakness when new job numbers were issued.

Remember the mantra from Bill Clinton in '92? "It's the economy, stupid."

One thing that was clear to me in Iowa was that Iraq was not the dominant issue for Democrats; it certainly was on the minds of voters, but it was not their overriding concern and that was obvious from the issues covered by the candidates. Maybe pocketbook issues are the answer.

Realistically, Clinton needs to block Obama before he gets on a roll, but doing that won't be easy, especially if her fellow Senator continues to draw huge crowds, and maintains his "rock star" aura.

On the GOP side, while Iowa was a duel between Huckabee and Mitt Romney, New Hampshire is more likely to be between Romney and John McCain.

McCain has spent a lot of time there in recent months, just as he did in 2000 when he skipped Iowa and easily defeated then Governor George W. Bush in the primary. Will 2008 be a repeat win?

Huckabee still seems likely to get a bump in New Hampshire and definitely in national polls. Keep an eye on his numbers in coming days to see how much. He may not be a one-hit wonder in the GOP race, especially when the candidates move south and west.

Why Did Obama and Huckabee Win in Iowa?

Even in the short time that I was in Iowa, you could immediately get a feel for why Obama and Huckabee were successful.

Both have a personality that draws people in. Obama is very good at giving a speech and firing up the crowd. Huckabee is more low key, but he seems to connect with people by being the neighbor who always says "hi" to you over the fence.

My father said last month that Huckabee was "Jimmy Carter with a sense of humor" and that seems like an appropriate description.

At a rally just hours before the caucuses in Grinnell, Iowa, Huckabee was at ease telling funny family stories, joking that people should shovel snow on the driveways of their neighbors if they were voting for someone else and more.

Obama meantime has made himself the candidate of "hope" and the future. His rallies are likely to only get bigger, especially if he wins in New Hampshire; he could be hard to stop.

One person who caucused for Obama in Ames, Iowa wrote me to say that Obama "really does seem like a new kind of leader."

One guy I interviewed outside Des Moines said the same thing in a different way: "Obama really has the juice."

But now expect a different kind of race maybe for Obama. It's one thing to be on top, it's another to start getting slammed by opposition operatives who sense their candidate may be in trouble.

Obama really hasn't been roughed up much by the media as yet. Maybe the win in Iowa will start to change that, especially if the Clinton people decide to zero in on him.

As I write this while waiting on (yet) another delayed flight on my Iowa Caucus trip, I'm watching the legions of young people leaving Des Moines. They are all sporting buttons for the candidate they worked for, much like they would wear a sweatshirt for their college after a football weekend.

"That was the greatest moment of my life," one kid told his group of Obama worker bees, referring to the Iowa victory.

"You guys want to see a great picture of Obama?" said another.

"Check it out. This is how close to him I was."

"I would love to talk to him," another girl gushed, "but it wasn't going to happen."

For the kids who work their tails off on these races, winning isn't everything, but it sure sends them home in a better frame of mind.

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