As a reporter, I struggle sometimes to figure out what in the heck is really going on around me, especially when it comes to the political arena.
It would seem logical to report that because Barack Obama won Iowa last Thursday, he will roll into New Hampshire with momentum and once more emerge victorious over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
Going to an Obama event Sunday at the Pinkerton Academny in Derry, New Hampshire, the evidence was there for exactly that. Huge lines of people outside the school's field house, hundreds packed into the arena - maybe more than a thousand.
The Secret Service was there screening the media - that's always evidence that a campaign has just taken on new importance.
But the rally didn't have the full throat of Obama in Iowa. He seemed a bit tired, even as he urged New Hampshire voters to help him towards a second historic victory on Tuesday.
In Iowa, Obama liked to ask the question of the crowd, "How many of you are still undecided?" There were always some hands that went up, and then he would turn to his campaign staff and say "there are some targets - go get them" and everyone gets a good laugh.
When Obama asked that same question on Sunday, a LOT of hands went up. One of my colleagues estimated as many as a third of the crowd.
That tells me that there are just as many people out there struggling to figure out where they think this campaign is going and where they should stand, just as the voters of Iowa struggled to make up their minds.
Some voters, a lot of them Independents, are struggling with the choice of voting for Obama in the Democratic Primary, or voting for John McCain on the Republican side. How they break may have a really big impact on both races.
McCain heard exactly that at an early afternoon rally during a packed Q&A session with voters. It was much like the spirit of 2000, when McCain roared around New Hampshire and badly defeated George W. Bush.
Because I had to endure yet another delayed flight, I made it to the McCain event on time, and there were so many people, that I couldn't get anywhere near the media stand to plug in my tape recorder for his remarks.
Of course, when you are in radio, that's a bit of a problem. So I just kept walking around the school, opening doors, going down hallways and trying to find a way to get inside that gym.
Soon enough, I saw a pair of cables snaking their way down the hallway, under a door, down the stairs and outside into the parking lot.
There, Charlie the CNN satellite truck driver was more than nice enough to give me an audio feed of McCain, along with some A/C power from the side of his truck, since your DC reporter hadn't stopped for batteries in his rush from the Manchester airport.
Luckily, New Hampshire is sub-tropical compared to Iowa and so I stood outside for about an hour with my gear. The principal of the school was nice enough to take my picture.
When I asked him how many people were in the gym, he answered like a politician, "The fire code only allows 425 in there," he said.
As for how well McCain will do, a lot of it will depend on how many Independents vote in the Democratic primary (mainly for Obama) and how many vote on the GOP side. It's something the pollsters have a difficult time figuring out.
After the McCain event, I ran 15 miles up the road to catch an Obama rally. I left that early as well to make a mad dash to the east to catch an event with Hillary Clinton.
It was at a high school where I had covered a John Edwards event four years ago - and I immediately remembered how difficult it was to find.
Not much had changed in four years - even with a GPS that a colleague of mine had in his car, we couldn't find the school.
So I opted to squeeze my eyes shut and try to remember what I did to find it four years ago...maybe turn left at that blinking light and go left again and keep driving...and there it was!
We were a half hour late, but Clinton was even later - 90 minutes behind schedule.
Unlike at the Obama event earlier on Sunday, there were available parking spaces for the Clinton rally, which is never really a good sign just two days before the primary.
What have I said several times in recent days? Trust your gut. My gut tells me right now that an Obama-McCain daily double would not be a surprise. But there still are a lot of undecided voters and Indpendents who will have a major impact.
Oh, and for those interested, I didn't drive as much today, mainly because I got a late start. I only put 185 miles on the rental car. We'll see how much we can do on Monday.
New Hampshire Primary Number Five
It's almost hard to believe that this is the fifth time that I have covered the New Hampshire primary.
I clearly remember the day I flew into Manchester in 1992. The radio was crackling with the news of a letter that Bill Clinton had written his draft board during Vietnam, and it looked like the Arkansas Governor was in big trouble.
It may have been that night that I drove to the Elks Club in Dover, New Hampshire to hear Clinton speak and by chance, he uttered one of the great political lines as he pleaded for a second chance from voters.
"I'm going to give you this election back and if you give it to me, I won't be like George Bush, I'll never forget who gave me a second chance and I'll be there for you until the last dog dies."
Clinton ended up finishing second in New Hampshire to Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts, but the future President declared it a victory and garnered the label the "Comeback Kid."
1992 was not only wild on the Democratic side, but the GOP battle was one to remember as well, as the first President Bush found himself squarely in the cross hairs of conservative columnist Pat Buchanan.
Buchanan didn't win either, but his strong second place showing shook up the GOP and helped contribute to Bush's defeat that November.
One of my favorite moments with Buchanan ended up in the documentary "Feed" about the 1992 campaign. It happened outside a diner in the state capital of Concord.
Buchanan had been shaking hands inside, while outside some Buchanan protestors led by Rabbi Avi Weiss were knocking heads with Buchanan's security team. At the time, Jewish groups were rapping Buchanan over his anti-Israel rhetoric.
As the candidate came out, the press got knocked around in the shoving between security and the Jewish protestors. I remember climbing on top of a car to get out of the mix.
Finally, we got Buchanan to take some questions and a reporter asked "What about Israel?"
Buchanan paused dramatically, looked him in the eye and said, "My friend, this election is about the United States of America!"
With that, Buchanan's backers let out a huge roar and they plunged through the protestors and crowd in the parking lot to get to the campaign bus.
Four years later in 1996, Buchanan was back again, as this time he defeated eventual GOP nominee Bob Dole.
Buchanan gave great election night speeches both times, modeling his rhetoric on the American Revolution.
"Do not wait for orders from headquarters, mount up and ride to the sound of the guns!" he bellowed to thunderous applause.
My third visit to New Hampshire was in 2000, as then Vice President Al Gore was battling Bill Bradley, while the GOP race was mainly between John McCain and then Governor George W. Bush.
McCain had ignored the Iowa Caucuses and had caught fire in New Hampshire. His events were jammed to the gills, while the Bush events were bland and very establishment-like.
McCain throttled Bush by 18 points and seemed to have the momentum. But in the next two plus weeks, McCain ran into some bare-knuckled tactics that ultimately knocked him from the race, including rumors that the Arizona Senator had fathered a black child out of wedlock.
Gore meanwhile was trying his best to hold off Bradley, who was offering a more liberal campaign more to the liking of some New Hampshire voters.
Bradley was a popular guy in the Senate, but sometimes left us scribes in the press galleries scratching our heads.
The Sunday before the primary wasn't any old Sunday, it was Super Bowl Sunday, and not only was it Super Bowl Sunday, but the New England Patriots were playing, and that was certainly something to remember when setting up your schedule.
Bradley held a rally that was not long before kickoff at a private school East of Manchester. As the clock ticked, and the warm up speakers kept droning on, people were getting itchy, looking at their watches and wondering when he would start talking.
Finally, not long before kickoff, Bradley started. He had only gone a few minutes when someone yelled from the crowd, "Tell us why you want to be President!"
Bradley paused, looked up slowly and said "I'm getting there," and proceeded on with his story.
People actually got up to leave. It was the only time I have ever seen people leave a campaign event early in large numbers.
2004 was a Democrat-only affair, as George W. Bush was running for re-election. The big three were Howard Dean, who had just stumbled in Iowa, along with John Kerry the Iowa winner and John Edwards.
While Dean still drew big crowds, he was clearly headed downhill, thanks in part to an outburst at his Iowa concession speech that was replayed thousands of times over the next week.
Kerry and Edwards meanwhile were getting the biggest crowds I've ever seen in New Hampshire. Edwards though could not overcome Kerry's advantage from next door Massachusetts or erase concerns over a lack of experience. Kerry won and took the nomination.
What have I learned from all those times on the campaign trail? That it is a lot of work, but a lot of fun.
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