Posted January 14, 2008
This week will mark another important step forward in both parties for the 2008 Presidential race.
For Republicans, the first test is Tuesday in Michigan, where the polls have shown a tight race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Romney has basically chosen his home state as a make or break primary battle, as last week he pulled television ads in South Carolina and Florida in order to focus resources on Michigan.
"It's really do or die for Romney," says GOP strategist Scott Reed, who was campaign manager for Bob Dole in 1996.
"He has to win somewhere."
Romney finished second in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, while winning the low-key Wyoming caucuses. That might be okay for others, but not for a candidate who was once the GOP frontrunner.
For McCain, the opportunity is there this week for a double victory in Michigan and in South Carolina. That would clearly put him in the lead for the Republican nomination.
"For the first time it looks like there's a path where McCain could win the nomination," said Reed.
Also in the mix in both states is Mike Huckabee, who can count on a lot of votes from more conservative areas in both Michigan and South Carolina.
Huckabee has nowhere near the resources of Romney or McCain. Evidently he hadn't spent a single dime in Michigan until just last week. In South Carolina, he had only a handful of aides until his win in Iowa.
To me, Huckabee still remains the best story of this race, simply because of how he blends both a familiar religious conservative message and a new brand of economic populism.
He has earned the wrath of many conservative leaders as well as talk radio icons like Rush Limbaugh. Basically, the Old Guard doesn't like what the New Kid is offering.
Democrats Take A Different 2008 Road
The Democrats don't really have a race in Michigan, because of the controversy over the timing of that primary.
Several months ago when the Democratic National Committee moved to punish states like Florida and Michigan for moving their primaries too early in the process, Democrats began to pull their names off the Michigan ballot.
All that is, except Hillary Clinton.
She is on the Michigan ballot, along with "Uncommitted." A victory there for her will be nice public relations, but little else. A loss to "Uncommitted" would be a PR embarrassment that her critics would enjoy.
The big prize this week for the Democrats is Nevada, which is on Saturday, the same day as the GOP primary in South Carolina.
Imagine being in Las Vegas this Saturday, when you realize that a number of casinos will be used for Democratic caucuses!
Yes, you can gamble for a few hours and then check in on how the Democrats are faring in your casino precinct.
Barack Obama's endorsement last week by the Service Employees International Union has developed into a battle of labor unions, with some for Obama and others for Clinton.
Both candidates spent some time in Vegas this past week, and it's likely you'll see more political commentary from The Strip in coming days.
Does Anyone Get Knocked Out This Week?
On the Democratic side, Obama and Clinton are here to stay through the February 5 Super Tuesday, but Nevada will be important to both candidates in terms of getting momentum.
On the GOP side, most eyes will be on Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. If Romney cannot win in Michigan, there will be more and more stories about his campaign sinking to the bottom of the Political Ocean.
Also on the bubble is Fred Thompson. He's trying to use South Carolina as his last ditch effort to stay in this race and also knock down Mike Huckabee a few pegs.
If Romney and Thompson fail, then suddenly we are looking at a race between McCain and Huckabee, with Rudy Giuliani trying to be relevant.
This week could clear out some of the underbrush in this race, or with a few upsets, make an even more wide open affair.
Race Becomes a Hot Topic For Democrats
The War of Words did not slow down this weekend as the Clinton and Obama camps tangled over race and surrogates on both sides took dead aim at the other.
This battle erupted last week, when Hillary Clinton was criticized for a statement that said President Lyndon Johnson deserved some credit for pushing civil rights changes through the Congress that had been championed by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
That plus questions about statements by former President Bill Clinton about Obama started a whirlwind of accusations, counter-accusations and verbal grenades on both sides.
Then on Sunday, Black Entertainment TV founder and Clinton backer Robert Johnson stirred the pot again, by seemingly referring to Obama's admitted drug use as a teenager.
Look for this issue to keep going today, as Clinton attends a ceremony in honoring Dr. King.
Making it even easier for the TV networks to do the story is that the King ceremony is in New York City.
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