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Posted January 16, 2008

In a must-win situation, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the Michigan Primary Tuesday, leaving the race for the GOP presidential nomination even more uncertain.

In contests in four states so far, Romney has won in Michigan and Wyoming, while Iowa went to Mike Huckabee and New Hampshire to John McCain, as no one has been able to establish any momentum.

For now, Romney is the GOP leader in terms of delegates, as this race now shifts to contests on Saturday in Nevada and South Carolina.

The focus over the next four days for Republicans will be on South Carolina, as Fred Thompson tries to save his candidacy and become the fourth different GOP winner this year.

"The Republican campaign for President remains wide-open," said Thompson campaign manager Bill Lacy.

I bet you will hear that an awful lot in coming days.

One note: history has been on the side of the GOP primary victor in South Carolina, as every winner since 1980 has gone on to take the Republican presdiential nomination.

"Tonight marks the beginning of a comeback, a comeback for America," Romney told his cheering backers in Michigan. "Washington is broken and we're going to do something about it."

The Romney victory will certainly bring smiles to many in Republican circles in Washington, D.C. who cannot fathom the idea that Sen. John McCain would be their standard bearer.

"We don't mind a fight," McCain told his supporters last night. His press office went one better, putting out a press release entitled, "Mitt Won, Authenticity Lost."

McCain though will have to contend with a stronger Mike Huckabee in South Carolina, who hopes to win the votes of religious conservatives in the Palmetto State.

One note though about Huckabee - exit polls showed that Romney had as much support from evangelical voters in Michigan as Huckabee did.

Echoes of McCain's South Carolina Loss in 2000

For McCain, South Carolina is certainly personal, as he remembers the bare knuckle tactics that led to his defeat in 2000, attacks that included charges that he had fathered a black child.

McCain's daughter Bridget, a Bangladeshi, was adopted from Mother Teresa's orphanage.

On Tuesday in South Carolina, a flier surfaced from a group named "Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain" accusing McCain of deserting his fellow prisoners of war in Hanoi.

The McCain camp reacted quickly with what the campaign has labeled its "Truth Squad" to denounce the attack, eerily like what McCain was hit with eight years ago.

South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster used words like "absolutely despicable" to describe the attack.

After coming up short in Michigan, South Carolina becomes even more important now for McCain. Watch in coming days to see how many in the media say it is "do-or-die."

Probably the only candidate that really could go belly up on Saturday is Fred Thompson, who has staked everything on South Carolina. Thompson has been gaining in the polls, mainly at the expense of Mike Huckabee.

Hillary Clinton "Wins" and Spars With Obama

It wasn't much of a "win" for Clinton in Michigan, since Barack Obama and John Edwards weren't even on the ballot, but if you are a Clinton backer, it makes sense to call it a victory and say it over and over again.

"Tonight Michigan Democrats spoke loudly for a new beginning," said Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle.

"Uncommitted" did win over a third of the vote in Michigan as the Edwards and Obama camps had urged their backers to pull the uncommitted lever as a way to send a message.

As I write this, "Uncommitted" is at 39%, which isn't exactly a resounding note for the Clinton camp.

Exit polls showed that Clinton won the votes of women and whites, while blacks, younger voters and independents were more likely to go for "uncommitted" (translated, they would have voted for Edwards or Obama.)

And if I heard correctly, there was a 20 point gender gap for Clinton - as in her rate of support among women was 20 percent higher than support from men.

Democrats Point Fingers over Florida

Before the votes were counted in Michigan, the Clinton and Obama camps were sparring about the Florida primary on January 29th, which is like Michigan for the Democrats, only a beauty contest, with no campaign appearances allowed in the state.

But - you are allowed to go there and raise money - and evidently that's what Hillary Clinton has planned for January 27th in Florida, two days before the primary.

Fund raising by a candidate in Florida is okay under Democratic National Committee rules, as long as you don't do any overt campaigning.

The Obama camp cried foul Tuesday, alleging that Clinton was looking at large venues in which to hold rallies, a charge that her campaign denied.

Something tells me we will see more jousting about Florida no matter who wins in Nevada this Saturday and then in the South Carolina Democratic Primary on the 26th.

The latest polls have Clinton ahead by a comfortable margin in the Sunshine State.

Conventional Wisdom and the Press Wizards

Maybe this race will shake out after Super Tuesday on February 5th. Then again, maybe it won't.

I heard a lot of different scenarios on the cable news networks last night from a lot of people who could be classified as political experts.

So far the voters seem to be saying to the candidates (especially in the GOP) you may have won last week, but you aren't winning this week.

Evidently, the Republican Party of Michigan was ready for anything as they sent out a news release praising John McCain for his primary win.

That was superceded a few minutes later by a statement noting that Mitt Romney won.

The explanation was that someone simply pushed the wrong button.

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