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Campaign 2008 Filters Back to DC
Posted January 17, 2008

If there was any message out of the first three major states in Campaign 2008 for candidates in both parties, it was that the health of the US economy has suddenly become issue #1.

For the last year, Democrats in Congress hammered on the Bush White House mainly on Iraq, but when I hit the campaign trail in Iowa, it was immediately obvious that Iraq was not "The" issue for voters.

Yes, the unrest over Iraq remains an important issue for Democrats overall, but this year is reminding me more and more of 1992, when James Carville's simple statement, "It's the economy, stupid" helped focus Bill Clinton's campaign.

Today Congress hears from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as he updates lawmakers on the short term economic outlook.

Next week, Democratic leaders go to the White House to meet with President Bush about this year's legislative agenda, and the economy is expected to be at the top of the list.

Mr. Bush meanwhile gives his State of the Union address on January 28th, which will certainly focus on Congressional action on the economy.

While a lot will happen in Washington, D.C. this year that won't pierce the Campaign Trail Bubble, I'd bet this early maneuvering in DC on the economy won't be ignored, especially because you have three sitting Senators running for President.

The pressure will be on both sides to quickly come up with a stimulus deal to spur new economic growth. And I can close my eyes and imagine Senators Clinton, McCain and Obama all rushing back to Capitol Hill to be part of the debate.

In recent days we've had Democratic candidates unveil their own plans for the US economy. One would expect the pressure will grow on the GOP hopefuls to do the same, especially as President Bush offers up his own plans.

One interesting thing to watch will be which GOP candidates embrace the President's ideas, who says "that's okay, but here's what I want to do," and which ones simply attack the Democrats.

Back at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

President Bush has been on the sidelines for the real start of this 2008 race, mainly because he was on an extended Middle East trip, which was certainly overshadowed by the political jockeying back home.

But now that Mr. Bush is back at the White House, the dynamic changes somewhat.

The daily White House Briefings will become a place for reporters to ask what the President thinks about certain campaign stories.

I would expect lots of "no comments" about the GOP race until a winner emerges, but I'm sure Mr. Bush and his aides will be more than happy to weigh in and take some jabs at the Democrats.

Some like political strategist Dick Morris believe Mr. Bush needs to be more involved in the Republican race to replace him, to end what Morris calls "GOP Chaos."

"President Bush has been unique in refusing to help his party choose a successor," Morris wrote on Wednesday. "The result is the fissure now tearing the party apart."

Where Is The "Bounce?"

Those of us who love watching campaigns often talk about the "bounce" that candidates get after winning a key primary or caucus.

So far in 2008 though, the bounce seems to have lost its bounce.

Think about it for a minute. Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney both lost in Iowa to start off the year after being the big favorites.

Iowa winners Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee got a lift, but not enough to win in New Hampshire. The GOP winner in the Granite State, John McCain, couldn't win the next week in Michigan.

No one will be surprised if Hillary Clinton loses in Nevada this weekend, the first battle after her win in New Hampshire.

One week you're up and the next you're down.

Michigan winner Mitt Romney will see if he can throw off the shackles and grab the first back-to-back win of 2008 on Saturday in South Carolina.

Where is the momentum in this year's race?

Where Are the Candidates Today?

Giuliani - Florida
Huckabee - South Carolina
McCain - South Carolina
Romney - South Carolina, Nevada
Thompson - South Carolina

Clinton - California
Edwards - Nevada, California
Obama - Nevada

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