Posted January 26, 2008
Today the only polls that mean anything are the actual votes of Democrats in South Carolina, as Barack Obama enters the day favored to win his second contest of the Democratic nomination battle.
It has been an unsettling week in Democratic ranks, as the spat between Obama and both Bill and Hillary Clinton left a sour taste in the mouths of some Democrats, both rank and file and leadership.
Does that work to the advantage of John Edwards today? We will know soon enough when the real numbers start being tabulated.
We will also know whether the pollsters have done a better job getting a hold on this race than they did up in New Hampshire.
If the polls are dramatically off again, there will have to be a lot of soul searching on the issue of race and whether people flat out lie at a much higher rate when a high profile campaign involves a black candidate.
Was It Really That Mean Spirited of a Week?
Having watched the Democrats both from afar and on the ground in South Carolina, I'm just not convinced this was as ugly a week as some of my colleagues have portrayed in the press.
Yes, the Clinton and Obama feud went to a new level this week. Yes, things got testy in the debate and both sides leveled new charges that didn't always pan out and yes, both sides had to pull ads that didn't really measure up.
But was it really some kind of new low in Gutter Politics that should galvanize the nation?
For me, the quote that wraps this up the best comes from James Carville, the Democratic strategist who was key to Bill Clinton's win in 1992. This from the New York Times:
"James Carville, Mr. Clinton's political strategist in 1992, said that the jousting between the two camps had hardly turned toxic, and that the stakes of this election were too high to have a milquetoast campaign.
"This is not Williams College students electing a commencement speaker. This is a huge deal," Mr. Carville said. "Does the president risk going overboard? Sure. But Obama runs a risk of being wussified."
In other words, Carville knows some elbows are being thrown. But he also knows that this ain't even close to being some kind of dirty tricks campaign against Obama. It's more of a jab-jab-jab to knock him off message.
I don't think Bill Clinton will be grounded by Hillary and sent back to watch TV in Chappaqua for his work in recent days.
If you are wondering about his role, he's already left South Carolina and will continue his Sold Out Tour in Missouri today.
Watch Where the Candidates Go, Not What They Say
If you want to entertain yourself even more as Super Tuesday arrives, watch the datelines of where the candidates are and where they are going. That tells me a lot about their goals and their reality check.
For example, I got another one of the many emails I get every day from the Mike Huckabee campaign about his schedule.
This was simply entitled, "Mike Huckabee to Campaign in Nashville on Monday, January 28, 2008."
In other words, Huckabee is leaving Florida, before the primary takes place on Tuesday, heading to Tennessee, one of the over twenty states holding contests on Super Tuesday.
Huckabee has really fizzled in the last few days according to the polls in Florida and this may be the ultimate confirmation of the fact that he won't finish well in the Sunshine State.
Beating Huckabee to Nashville will be Hillary Clinton, who will arrive there tonight, on Saturday night for an event.
"Wait a second," you say? Isn't tonight the vote in South Carolina? You are learning quickly, my friend.
Hillary won't be in South Carolina, whether she finishes first, second or third. She's ready for the next round.
What's So Important About Next Week?
What would cause Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and maybe John McCain to all be in the same room on Monday the 28th, the night before the Florida Primary?
That story and a lot more from the Campaign Trail in coming days as I shift my focus from South Carolina to Florida.
The word is that Neal Boortz and Sean Hannity will be joining me in Orlando (they of course would say that I am joining them, but that's okay.)
16 years ago, I drove from South Carolina down to Florida after watching Bill Clinton win big in the Democratic primary over Paul Tsongas and then President George Bush all but knock out Pat Buchanan with a win.
Clinton's voice started to give out in Florida, so one evening in Tampa, he stood there silently at a campaign rally and let his wife, the First Lady of Arkansas give the remarks.
I clearly remember calling my father on the phone that night and telling him that Hillary seemed very much at home on the campaign trail, and that she gave a better speech than he ever did.
Check back for more insights from Florida next week!
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