Posted January 27, 2008
After a week of political battling in South Carolina, it wasn't even close. Barack Obama notched an overwhelming victory thanks to a large turnout of black voters.
Exit polls show Obama got 80 percent of the black vote and about a quarter of the white vote, providing him with a landslide victory.
In the days leading up to the primary, the polls showed Obama only getting about 10 percent of the white vote.
It was a much needed victory for Obama, who had not won a contest since the Iowa Caucuses over three weeks ago. And the fact that it was by such a big margin will only boost his confidence as well.
Exit polls show that Hillary Clinton was hurt by controversy over her husband's role in the South Carolina campaign. The former President was front and center all week, and it seemed it ultimately drove up her negatives and cost her votes.
While Hillary can certainly survive this setback, the distant finish of John Edwards will only mean more media put-downs of his candidacy in the run up to Super Tuesday.
Four years ago, Edwards won the South Carolina primary. Four years later, he didn't even come close to repeating that.
While Edwards hopes to play kingmaker by getting enough delegates to remain a player in this nomination race, that becomes tougher to do each day, especially when it is hard to figure out where he might be able to win one primary or caucus.
South Carolina Fallout and What's Next?
Certainly, Obama gets a boost out of South Carolina. Big headlines, lots of positive talk which will be repeatedly referenced on Monday night when he attends President Bush's State of the Union address.
But Tuesday night could be a different story in Florida, as polls there indicate that Hillary Clinton is in very good shape.
Obama and Clinton might not have faced off in Florida like they did in South Carolina, but the newspaper will still say that one of them "won" in Florida.
Both candidates are already looking ahead to Super Tuesday. Clinton left South Carolina before the polls had closed to campaign in Tennessee.
She has another event in Tennessee on Sunday and campaigns Monday in Connecticut and Massachusetts.
Obama stops in Georgia and Alabama on Sunday and holds a rally in Washington, D.C. on Monday.
That Sunday schedule clearly tells me that his aides hope he can repeat his winning combination from South Carolina of high levels of black support, combined with a decent number of white votes in Georgia and Alabama on Super Tuesday.
Clinton though would seem to be the favorite in California, New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, four delegate rich states.
This race will get very hard to follow starting today, especially since what matters is not who wins what state, but who wins each Congressional district in those states. That's how Democrats award delegates on a proportional vote basis.
McCain Gains Late Florida Endorsements
On a day where John McCain and Mitt Romney tangled repeatedly over the issue of Iraq, McCain wrapped up the two most prized GOP endorsements in the state of Florida, getting Governor Charlie Crist's support.
A day earlier, it was Senator Mel Martinez of Florida jumping on board with McCain.
While I'm always a bit wishy-washy about the importance of political endorsements, Crist and Martinez are key players in Florida, and this could note a late swing towards McCain and send a message about the GOP establishment's support for him.
Polls have shown both McCain and Romney with a short lead over each other in recent days, with Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee trailing.
Giuliani of course cannot afford that kind of result.
South Carolina Fallout in the Black Community
Obama's candidacy has created a very interesting dynamic among blacks, as many of the older, more established African American politicians have thrown their support to Hillary Clinton, while younger blacks have run to Barack Obama.
As I sit here sifting through the exit polling data from South Carolina, the thought comes to mind that some of those state lawmakers and party officials in South Carolina who backed Clinton might see some opposition soon, in the form of unhappy constituents.
It was obvious from the controversy generated in South Carolina that this race - and Obama's candidacy specifically - has touched a nerve inside the black community.
If Obama continues to win, it most certainly will result in an upheaval in some quarters, as a new generation begins to assert themselves.
Squarely in the cross hairs would be some very familiar leaders who emerged from the aftermath of the battle over civil rights.
It could be we are seeing the seeds of change being sewed in the black community in terms of future leadership. Time will tell.
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