Posted January 31, 2008
A day after getting the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain will again dominate the political news as California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will join the McCain for President bandwagon.
During Tuesday's election night coverage in Florida, I joked on and off air about how that might happen - little did we realize that it was in the works.
The big time endorsement will come just five days before the California Primary, which is the biggest prize of the over twenty states involved in Super Tuesday.
Last week it was Florida Governor Charlie Crist who got on board with McCain and helped deliver a primary victory, now it's Schwarzenegger who hopes to boost McCain even more.
The endorsement is certain to fan the flames of McCain critics within the GOP who already regard McCain as not conservative enough. It's a charge that's often been leveled against Schwarzenegger as well.
Echoing the complaints of radio hosts last night, Mitt Romney used a GOP debate in California to charge that McCain is not a true Ronald Reagan conservative and thus does not deserve the GOP nomination.
McCain rejected the charge, which has dogged him for years over issues as varied as the Bush tax cuts and campaign finance reform legislation.
The Schwarzenegger endorsement also comes amid reports that Romney may not be ready to spend much more of his personal fortune on massive TV advertising buys in the Super Tuesday states.
McCain, Romney and Mike Huckabee will all campaign today in California, while Ron Paul is in Washington State.
Edwards, Giuliani Drop Out of 2008 Race
While I wasn't shocked that Rudy Giuliani gave up on the 2008 Presidential race, I was somewhat surprised that John Edwards didn't to stay in through at least Super Tuesday.
Edwards tried his best to make the Democratic race a three way battle with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Listening to Edwards in South Carolina last week and Giuliani in Florida was like playing back an old record that I've heard many times before on the campaign trail, as a candidate struggles to stay relevant in the Presidential race.
Both men talked a good game about winning a primary and then spurring a new run to their party's nomination. But neither Edwards nor Giuliani had anywhere near the support needed to continue, and probably money was becoming an issue as well.
I think the high point for Edwards was actually four years ago in New Hampshire. He had finished a surprising second in Iowa behind John Kerry and was drawing huge crowds in New Hampshire. People were genuinely excited by his candidacy.
But he never could get over the hump in 2004 and settled for the Vice Presidential nomination. It didn't seem like he or Kerry really hit it off with each other. It was a political match more than a personal one.
This time around, the Edwards theme was much different than four years earlier. The crowds just weren't there. And other than in Iowa this year, the votes weren't there either.
As for Giuliani, wow, what a fall. For a long time, I thought he just might pull off the feat of winning the GOP nomination. He had great name ID and fairly good credentials.
Opting out of Iowa was understandable. Others have done it before. Pulling out of New Hampshire seemed odd. Not battling in Michigan and South Carolina raised even more eyebrows. Focusing only on Florida seemed politically suicidal.
In the end, his strategy, described by some in Washington, D.C. as "preposterous" was exactly that.
The New Look Democratic Race
With both Edwards and Giuliani headed home, I'm more convinced now that these nomination races won't go to any brokered convention. In fact, I would almost wager that we will have a very good idea who the nominees will be by the day after Super Tuesday.
On the Democratic side, there is no one in the way of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. No one else can be blamed for splitting the anti-Hillary or anti-Obama vote.
With Edwards gone, if either Obama or Clinton "wins" on Super Tuesday by carrying a big majority of states, then they will quickly become the favorite, maybe the "inevitable" nominee.
Today Obama and Clinton get their first one-on-one debate in California. We'll see if it produces fireworks or not. I've been amused that the State of the Union "Snub" story has lasted so long this week.
As for where the candidates go, Obama will hit New Mexico, Idaho, Minnesota, Missouri and Illinois in coming days.
Hillary Clinton was in Arkansas and Georgia yesterday. Her husband Bill continues to make the Super Tuesday rounds, going to Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado and New Mexico.
For Super Tuesday, there's no going back and forth across just one state, holding rally after rally and doing interviews with the same local TV and radio stations.
I'll leave it up to you to decide who benefits from a campaign that is light on personal candidate involvement. Right now my money would be on Hillary, but the people vote, not reporters.
Breaking Down A Three Way Republican Battle
While the Democratic race is down to two, the GOP nomination battle is still a three way deal, with John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
Romney would dearly love to have Huckabee out of this race, because the Huck is certainly taking some conservative votes that might otherwise go to Mitt.
Huckabee's strength will most likely be in the South, including Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and Arkansas.
McCain would seem to have a natural advantage in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, his home state of Arizona and in California, where he has the backing of Governor Schwarzenegger.
Like the Democratic race, if one of the three GOP candidates goes on a Super Tuesday winning streak, they will soon be deemed the "inevitable" nominee, drastically changing the nature of the GOP race.
Romney would seem likely to show strength in the West, smaller states like Utah, Idaho and North Dakota. But those states of course don't have near as many delegates as a New Jersey or New York.
Huckabee simply needs to win. That's not being unfair to him, it's just the Real Political World bearing down on him right now. Strong second place finishes for Huckabee like in South Carolina aren't going to cut it anymore.
I really sense momentum on the side of John McCain. We will see next week if that is indeed the case.
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