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Super Tuesday Finally Arrives
Posted February 5, 2008

I think what I like most about this year's Primary season - and probably what most Americans like about it - is that it has been a real race. The "frontrunners" didn't exactly tear things up in the first few weeks, but they didn't exactly just crumple to the floor, either.

So now we arrive at Super Duper Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday, whatever you want to call it. It is the closest thing we have ever had to a national primary.

Voters in 24 states will either vote in a primary or caucus today, from Alaska to Massachusetts, from Georgia to California.

Everyone left in this race has a legitimate chance today to turn things in their favor, whether it is Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, or the law firm of Romney, McCain and Huckabee.

If this were a horse race, I think I might decide not to bet it. The polls have been moving around a lot in some states, more than I would want to see. That has to be creating a bit of heartburn in the stomachs of top aides.

Clearly, the Obama and McCain camps woke up this morning with the most confident feeling of the bunch. Whether they will have big smiles on their face, we will know soon enough.

An Obama "win" tonight could really put him in charge of the Democratic race. The same goes for Hillary. A draw, and we fight on, maybe into April.

I am reminded that it took Bill Clinton until maybe June to lock up the nomination in 1992. Even after he had dispatched Paul Tsongas, then it was Jerry Brown who jumped up and caused trouble, winning the Connecticut Primary at one point.

It will be fun to watch the numbers roll in tonight.

McCain v Romney v Huckabee

The conventional wisdom in recent days in Washington, D.C. has been that Sen. John McCain will take control of the GOP nomination tonight with a series of Super Tuesday victories.

McCain would seem to have the political mojo in states like Connecticut, New York and New Jersey, which are Winner Take All states and would give him a big chunk of delegates.

But some late polls raise questions about what's going to happen in California, as Mitt Romney flew there Monday for a final visit.

McCain is going to San Diego for a Super Tuesday Primary Day visit - does that mean his camp is really worried? Or is the trip a protective, "just in case" kind of measure?

I would really be surprised if McCain suddenly lost his lead in a big Mitt Romney turnaround in California. What could have happened to cause a shift, if indeed there is one?

There certainly haven't been any gaffes. No major big time victories for Romney of any sort in the Golden State.

Did he come off badly at the debate last week? I don't remember any hints of something amiss on McCain like that. Stay tuned.

As for Romney and Mike Huckabee, they've been taking shots at each other long distance over the last couple of days as to whether one or the other should get out of the race in order to unite more conservative voters.

Huckabee clearly hopes to do well today in Georgia, Tennessee and Arkansas. Romney visited Georgia and Tennessee on Monday and zipped into Oklahoma to refuel on his way to California.

Let's say Huckabee were to win three states - that would really hurt Romney, because the last thing Romney needs is a Huckabee Who Won't Go Away.

1,023 delegates are at stake today for the GOP.

More Than 300 Separate Elections

You will hear it over and over today that 24 states are holding primaries or caucuses in all, with Democrats voting in 22 and Republicans in 21 states.

But in reality, there are over 370 different elections going on today that will determine who wins delegates in both parties.

Say what?

It's all about the somewhat byzantine rules the parties use for convention delegates, which result in more than just the statewide vote making a difference in the Presidential race.

Eight states have a pretty simple formula on the GOP side - Winner Take All. In those, all you have to do is win by one vote and you get all the GOP delegates.

Those states are Arizona, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Utah, Delaware, Montana and Missouri. They make up 35 percent of all available GOP delegates on Super Tuesday.

Three states, Georgia, Oklahoma and California have a modified form of Winner Take All, where a pool of delegates is available for both the statewide winner and for the winner of each Congressional district in that state.

The GOP assigns three delegates to each Congressional district. So in California, there are separate races in all 53 Congressional districts, plus a statewide race, making for 54 "different" elections in the Golden State.

The math is pretty simple. You win a Congressional district on the GOP side and you get three delegates. You win statewide and you win a different pool of delegates.

Oddly enough, you get more delegates in the statewide pool by winning in Georgia (30) or Oklahoma (23) than you do winning California (11.)

Some states even have a special Winner Take All provision, where if a candidate gets a certain percent of the vote in a district or statewide, that person wins all the delegates. Alabama and Arkansas are 50% plus one, North Dakota and Tennessee are 66% of the vote.

Are you confused yet? Probably, but at least you have some details to amaze your friends with at work today.

A Democratic Super Tuesday Primer

The Democrats are all about proportional vote results, as Winner Take All was stripped out of the party rules for good back in 1988.

So while a win in a Congressional district nets a GOP candidate three delegates, it's much more complicated than that for the Democrats.

Some states weight the various districts, usually assigning more delegates to a Congressional district that is held by a Democrat. In California, some Democratic districts have three, four, five or six delegates to offer.

But remember - win a district on the Democratic side and you only get a percentage of the delegates. Therefore, if Obama wins 51-49 over Hillary Clinton in a district that offers six delegates, that would be a split of three each.

It makes the math of Super Tuesday very complicated. It is also a reminder that several different contests will be played out tonight - who wins how many states, who wins how many delegates and the total Democratic vote in 22 states.

If we have a close race between Obama and Clinton, the day after spin on those three different "victories" will be very important to the "perceived" Super Tuesday winner.

Remember all the momentum that Barack Obama got in Iowa? He won handily, with Hillary Clinton in third. But when the delegates were counted, Obama only had one more than Hillary.

Same thing in Nevada. Hillary Clinton won the caucuses, but actually lost the delegate vote to Obama by one.

For me, the big question on both sides will be, do we have a real frontrunner after Super Tuesday, or just a slight tilt? It can make a big difference.

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