Posted February 6, 2008
As I type well after midnight, it seems apparent that John McCain has made himself the GOP frontrunner. He won in the northeast, in the midwest, the southwest and in California.
Mitt Romney won more states than Mike Huckabee, but Huckabee really kept himself in the race by winning in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and West Virginia. And it was very important that he won those states while most people were awake, while Mitt Romney's wins came later in the night.
Now Huckabee won't have to answer questions like "When are you getting out of the race?" in a defensive manner. He can joke that Romney should get out, to let the conservative vote consolidate behind the former Arkansas Governor.
Basically, McCain couldn't have asked for any better results. He won the big states and didn't suffer any nasty upsets. Huckabee did well enough that he won't be forced out, so that hurts Romney.
McCain declared himself the frontrunner at his victory party in Arizona last night, "And I don't really mind it one bit," he said.
The California win was big for both McCain and Hillary Clinton. If Hillary had lost the Golden State, Barack Obama could have really claimed victory, since he did win more Super Tuesday states.
Clinton took the top two prizes of California and New York. She also delivered a rebuke to Obama in Massachusetts, where a high profile endorsement from Ted Kennedy did nothing for Obama, as Clinton won easily there.
In terms of delegates, McCain and Clinton both lead, but McCain has a much clearer path to his party's nomination, as Clinton and Obama both go forward in what looks like an old style 15 round heavyweight title bout.
Huckabee Surprises GOP
No one would have predicted that Mike Huckabee would win a series of states on Super Tuesday - but he delivered a strong performance, and a bit of rebuke to the Talk Radio Big Shots who can't stand either McCain or Huckabee.
Another week of broadsides against McCain didn't seem to have any effect, as all the open hostility towards McCain, coupled with endorsements of Romney didn't cause any rush to Romney.
Whatever the reasons, Huckabee's wins last night mean that he can stay in the race, though you won't find many people in Washington, D.C. saying Huckabee has a chance to be the nominee.
Romney has tried his best to make this a two man race with McCain for several weeks now, but once again, it did not work.
What I found most interesting was that in states where Huckabee won or finished a close second, it was McCain running with him, with Romney a distant third. Romney clearly didn't sell in the South.
More Battles Ahead on Saturday
There isn't any rest for the candidates, as another round of states await them this weekend.
There are contests in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington State, plus the GOP has caucuses in Kansas.
Next week is the so-called Chesapeake Primary, with voting in Maryland, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and for the GOP in Pennsylvania.
One would expect Obama to do well in many of those states, but there won't be any real chance for him to deliver a knockout blow.
On the 19th, there is the Wisconsin Primary, and then there are two weeks off before March 4th, which features Texas and Ohio.
I better book some tickets now.
The Pollsters Have Issues Again
What is it with the polls and the Democrats in the 2008 race? The exit poll numbers that were leaked out as the polls began closing indicated a big night for Barack Obama, with wins in Arizona, Massachusetts and New Jersey.
OOPS. Those last three were all wins for Hillary Clinton.
The biggest loser last night may have been the Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby polls in recent days. They had Obama winning California by 13 points. Hmmmm. That didn't happen either. Instead, Hillary Clinton has an 11 point lead this morning. That's a 24 point difference.
Maybe the problem is that we have never had a presidential nomination battle that pits a woman against a black man. Maybe the old voter models just can't handle it.
Beware of the polls on the Democratic side until further notice.
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