American consumers are feeling less confident in December, a business research group says.

The Conference Board said Monday that its consumer confidence index fell back in December to 104.7 from 112.8 in November. Analysts forecast a rise to a reading of 113.8. Consumers had been feeling increasingly confident in recent months, spending more in the run-up to the all-important holiday shopping season.

The consumer confidence index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months.

The measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market tumbled more than a dozen points to 81.1. The Conference Board says a reading under 80 can signal a potential recession in the near future.

The proportion of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months remained stable.

The board reported Monday that consumers’ view of current conditions ticked down just more than a point to a reading of 140.2.

Consumers stepped up their spending at retail stores last month, contributing to a 0.7% rise in retail sales in November.

Another report showed that consumers increased their spending by a solid 0.4% from October to November, a sign that households continue to propel the economy. The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 3.1% annual rate last quarter, largely thanks to consumer demand.

Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity and is closely watched by economists for signs how the American consumer is feeling.

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