ATLANTA — A late surge of early voters in the metro Atlanta area’s biggest counties helped push the voter turnout in Georgia to a record high.
Channel 2′s Justin Farmer discussed what the surge of early voters means with political analyst Bill Crane, focusing on not just the voting turnout but also polling, methodology and how technology has changed poll accuracy.
First, Farmer and Crane talked turnout numbers.
According to Crane, studying Georgia’s early voting numbers showed him something interesting.
“In Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb counties, which are the top four metro Atlanta counties in voting, Fulton is up 44,000 votes, Gwinnett’s up 40,000 votes, Cobb up 38,000, DeKalb up 31,000 votes in the last two days,” Crane said.
Crane said the voters in these areas will likely trend toward casting their ballots for Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris rather than former President Donald Trump.
“They break Democratic and usually 65% and up in each of those counties in the last four election cycles,” Crane said. “So, those there will be and have been large numbers of Republican voters, but in counties with a lot fewer of them. So that’s a significant bump late in early voting.”
Crane told Channel 2 Action News he believed it was in reaction to recent campaign events from Harris, who was in DeKalb County with former President Barack Obama, as well as a nonpartisan get out the vote rally from former first lady Michelle Obama in College Park pushing turnout and focusing on metro Atlanta instead of the entire State of Georgia.
As far as polling, and polling accuracy, Crane said the times have changed.
“The way sampling is built is different. They very much rely on who votes in primaries to determine likely Republican, Democratic voters. They then build a database list and start the phone calling,” Crane explained.
However, he said much of it now is automated, and voters are getting emails or text messages asking for you to participate in a sample, instead of talking to a person running the surveys and polls.
“We don’t get to talk to a lot of humans anymore, which I do think hits accuracy,” Crane said. “I don’t trust any one poll or pollster, but I do trust trends. I do trust the average and aggregates and I heavily rely on Real Clear Polling, which takes a look at all the polls and averages them.”
Crane also keeps an eye on media buys, in terms of advertisements, when examining campaigns and elections. He said recent changes have shown him the Harris campaign may have changed its mind about success in North Carolina.
“Media buys have been adjusted, Georgia’s upward, we gained $24 million in media buys between the Trump and Harris campaigns. In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has drawn down media buys and canceled events,” Crane said. “So it would appear they believe, with logistical problems and turnout, they’ve lost North Carolina.”
Higher buying in Georgia means both campaigns are fighting for voters, according to Crane.
“They are fighting literally tooth and nail in places like Gwinnett County to push their voters to the polls and that’s what this is about right now. It’s about getting your people,” Crane said.