I saw “that snowcast” post that went viral Sunday afternoon, in which a few social media accounts found one single deterministic run of the ECMWF showing 12 inches of snow for Metro Atlanta.
The problem? It’s only one model run and it’s 10+ days ahead of the forecasted snow event. Models are NOTORIOUS for flip-flopping with each model run, so cherry-picking one model run and declaring a Winter Wonderland in 10 days is not only disingenuous, it’s irresponsible.
Remember: Snowstorms in the South require complex mitigation and prevention efforts, including salting the roads, staffing additional personnel in first responder and utility organizations, and extra time and money to make sure supplies are adequately stocked.
Look! I can post deterministic model runs on social media, too, and I did yesterday:
Look! I can post deterministic model runs on social media, too! This is the Euro Model, a mere 12 hours after the 00z...
Posted by Christina Edwards on Sunday, December 29, 2024
This is the Euro Model, a mere 12 hours after the 00z run that has “all that snow” for the Southeast. You know the one I’m talking about, the one that’s going viral... and y’all keep tagging me on
This model run says “nope” unless you are in the Cumberland Plateau or the Appalachian Mountains.
And 24 hours later, here is the same model, showing absolutely NO SNOW for the Southeast, save for the higher elevations in the Appalachian Mountains.
Tomorrow, a model run will probably put the snow back into the Southeast. And on Wednesday, the “snow” will be “gone”.
The point is, the pattern is setting up for bitterly cold air to move into the Southeast next week (Jan 6-12), with temps trending 20 degrees below average (highs in the 30s, lows in the 10s).
But frozen precipitation forecasting in the South is VERY unreliable until about 5 days out. You need both the cold AND the moisture -- usually we run out of moisture, or the cold doesn’t show up in time and it’s a miserable 38 degree rain.
I know many of you love snow -- I personally do not, I’ve nearly been caught in too many ATL SnowJams myself.
But hold off on the “wish-casting” until the week of Jan 6, please! You’ll only get your hopes up, and you’ll “enjoy” frozen sunshine instead!
So let’s put a “pin” in this and circle back again next weekend, THAT’S the time to get excited about the four-letter-S-word.
Cheers, and Stay Warm!
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