Hurricane Warning issued for part of the East Coast of Florida.

Catastrophic conditions for the Bahamas but Dorian still expected to weaken some as it gets farther North toward GA/SC middle of next week but still a serious threat from coastal North Carolina to coastal Georgia as of now.

For Florida the eventual severity or mildness of impacts will depend on how far West it gets before the expected turn to the North occurs, thanks to the very slow forward motion that remains unclear and is the reason the forecast track uncertainty remains greater than normal as discussed in a weeks worth of these blog posts.

The 185 MPH sustained winds with gusts near or above 200 ties Dorian with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for strongest Atlantic winds, the only one stronger was Allen in 1980 with 190 MPH winds.

As I pointed out on Twitter an error of merely 1 mph in forward motion until then can mean a location difference of 50 miles in 48 hours 70 mile error in 3 days and over 100 miles in 5 days. Very slow moving or stalling systems are not to be trusted.

Put another way a difference of when/where Dorian turns more North of just 25 miles will make a difference in impact for millions for better or worse.

Too many legitimate arguments can be made for it hitting more of Florida than currently indicated OR for it to curve even farther away with various model variants supporting both. I would expect greater consensus to start forming by this time Monday.

For updates and information not included here follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.

Please read previous blog posts if you haven’t already.