Hurricane Ian strengthened rapidly early Tuesday, and it made landfall over Cuba as a Major Category 3 Hurricane.

As of the 11am ET Tuesday advisory, Hurricane Ian is still a Category 3 Hurricane packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and moving north at 10 mph. Ian will soon be north of Cuba’s north coast and will be moving into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, parallel to the western Florida coastline.

Ian is forecast to move north of Cuba later this afternoon, moving over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, Ian is forecast to strengthen even further into a Category 4 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph this afternoon.

Ian is forecast to stall off the Gulf Coast of Florida, south of Tampa, for nearly 24 hours early Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Ian is forecast to make landfall just south of Tampa early Thursday morning as a Category 3 hurricane.

Ian will quickly diminish in strength as it moves north into Georgia and South Carolina. As of Tuesday morning, Ian’s forecast path is to the east of Metro Atlanta, sparing the region of the more significant impacts from a remnant tropical low.

As of this writing, Metro Atlanta and North Georgia impacts will include wind gusts of 35-45 mph as well as rainfall totals of 2-4 inches between Thursday night through Saturday morning.

However, Metro Atlanta is still in the Cone of Uncertainty, which means Ian still has the possibility to move further west over the next 3-5 days.

Below is additional information from the National Hurricane Center.

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IAN EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO...

...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND SOUTH

CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.0N 83.5W

ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA

ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the U.S. east coast from

Marineland Florida to the mouth of St. Mary's River including the

St. Johns River, and the Dry Tortugas. Along the Florida west

coast, a Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Suwanee River to

Anclote River.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from

south of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St.

Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been

extended north to Altamaha Sound Georgia and south to Boca Raton

Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Boca Raton to east

of Flamingo Florida, for the upper Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to

South Santee River South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

* Bonita Beach to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Suwanee River southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

* Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

* St. Johns River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

* Suwannee River to the Anclote River

* Flamingo to Bonita Beach

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys

* Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West

* Florida Bay

* Aucilla River to Suwanee River

* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River

* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River

* South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Suwannee River to Indian Pass

* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

* South of Boca Raton to east of Flamingo

* Upper Florida Keys

* Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located

near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ian is moving toward

the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to

continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction

in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the

forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the

southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the

Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida

within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher

gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today

through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of

Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches)

based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter data.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte

Harbor...8-12 ft

* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa

Bay...5-8 ft

* Suwannee River to Anclote River...4-6 ft

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft

* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft

* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft

* Marineland to Mouth of the St. Mary's River, including St.

Johns River...3-5 ft

* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft

* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft

* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Marineland...2-4 ft

* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft

* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft

* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft

* Indian Pass to Aucilla River...1-3

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by

large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing

of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short

distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet

above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of

onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in

Cuba through early afternoon, with destructive winds likely for a

few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the

tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida

within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with

tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area

along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,

and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along

portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane

conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the

lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today, and are

possible in southeastern Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area

beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in

the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida

beginning early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South

Carolina on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in

the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Florida Big Bend area on

Wednesday into early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through

Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16

inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in

areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated

totals up to 8 inches.

* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with isolated totals up to

24 inches.

* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida

Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches.

* Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the southeastern United

States Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected

mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern

Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged

river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash

and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern

Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is

expected over portions of the southeastern United States into the

Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across

the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,

and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the

eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Blake

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