Long-time followers are probably sick of hearing about this, but for you new folks a quick reminder that models and the websites and APPS they drive can and do fail, just like us humans. And forecast failure is more likely the further into the future you look.

That explains why I’ve had to smack down so many rumors of snow over the past couple weeks as I encounter people out and about.

Don’t waste your time or mine looking for specifics beyond 5 days.

(Southern NJ Today graphic)

To make things worse, most automated websites and crap APPS use only one model (there are about 6 dozen) and to make matters worse it’s one of the worst models to boot.

That’s why when I see people post a “model snow map” on social media I think its so stupid. And with no context it just makes everyone look bad.

I try to avoid playing the hype or clickbait game with my posts or my blog.

Let me show you some recent model flip-flops...

Just two days ago a model showed this to end the Month and start February:

As of Thursday morning...

Get it now? Quite a swing and a miss from same model in just a couple days:  buried in historic snow or not a flake lol.

In the business we often call these clown maps. So don’t be a clown, don’t look for them don’t look at them don’t ask about them and don’t share them.

It takes years of formal training and decades of experience to know when a long-range snow map has merit, some merit or the forecaster just does this:

Here is a recent example of the same model pulling a head-fake about the jet stream pattern and related temperature pattern:

The output was just 6 hours apart!!! That was not new data days apart, just 6 hours. Some models run every 6 hours. It takes a trained professional to understand which one to believe, not a layman or APP or automated website.

As of now, I am sticking to what I’ve been posting in multiple blog posts for months now with updates since last Sunday:

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One final word. If there were just one WEATHER MYTH that I could name that needs to DIE it is that there is just one single forecast delivered by different people on different channels or platforms. There is no such thing as "they say we're gonna get______" or "they are saying..."

Each individual has their own forecast: sometimes they are alike, sometimes they’re similar, and sometimes they’re worlds apart.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.