Our first polar air mass shot will be easing off in the days ahead but the models are consistent in showing additional shots of Polar air if not Arctic Air at times with moderation in-between the rest of this month and well into February. And quite frankly, the general jet stream patterns and temperature departure from normal is the type that in the past has lead to snow or ice in the Southern and Southeast states.

As per prior blog posts I suspect there will probably end up being at least several “scares” or close-calls or “near-misses”. But I’d be surprised if at least one if not more eventually hits for real. We just have to get the moisture/cold air timing just right, that’s never easy this close to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean and this far South with the complication of the mountains impact on Atlanta weather.

So while there is some up and down, the next couple weeks look to have temperatures average below-normal.

See the evolution of the jet stream flow pattern from today into mid-February:

Having the right pattern of course does not guarantee ice or snow we have to get everything to line up just perfect and that’s a lot harder here than up North obviously. 5-15 days the models are often wildly inconsistent in showing snowstorms here and crap APPS will be worse. The forecast shown on an APP or some web site will often be different from mine.

Looking ahead here’s what the Atlanta National Weather Service had to say:

So while the models show a favorable Jet Stream pattern that we would think would produce significant ice or snow the devil is in the details and we need to wait and watch on specific individual systems to track as they show up, assuming they do.

First up? MAYBE Sunday, give or take a day. I am not forecasting any YET. 

Let’s take a look at the projected situation...

This is the European Model 500mb jet stream (WxBell map) for Saturday night Jan 26:

The same for Sunday Evening Jan 27th showing the short-wave energy (X) closes the long-wave trough into a “neutral tilt” closed upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico (trying to become negatively tilted):

Quick explainer: a positively tilted trough is weak, the more negative tilted the stronger. Positive tilt is NE to SW orientation, negative is NW to SE.

Notice how the European Model surface low pressure Ensemble reveals a great deal of uncertainty on low pressure development and location (all the ‘Ls’ are possible) shown are Sunday morning, Sunday night, and Monday morning Jan 27-28:

So the model suggests the upper level jet stream energy produces low pressure that tracks somewhere across or near the Gulf Coast then up the East Coast possibly as another "Miller A"  or "B" or an A-B Hybrid Mid-Atlantic or Nor-easter snowstorm.

Remember synoptic meteorology is a step process. Step 1 is ID pattern, Step 2 ID a trackable system, Step 3 ID knowns and unknowns, Step 4 try to hone-in on details upon arrival, Step 5 last minute adjustments as needed with system in progress.

The WPC consensus surface maps for Saturday and Sunday do not look very impressive to me at this point:

SUNDAY JAN 27:

I am not showing any ice or snow accumulation maps at this point because that would be silly and unscientific as I’ve explained in hundreds of blogs and tweets in the past.

So to sum up it's too early to get real excited about Sunday or beyond. Right now this is just a signal from the data to monitor next Sunday (give or take a day) AND a signal to monitor the days and weeks beyond as well for anything more concrete.

P.S. Like this past Sunday morning there could be some meaningless snow flurries early Thursday morning but no biggie if it even happens at all.