We're not all going to die from the next snow/ice storm, whenever that might be. And it won't be in the foreseeable future. Not the scientifically foreseeable future. 

I realize not everyone studied advanced mathematics in school, or statistical analysis, or physics or thermodynamics.

However, that is not necessary nor is college nor is a Mensa level IQ to use logic, reason, and commonsense. So if we sometimes get snow or no snow wrong 8 hours ahead why would you ask me or anyone about a snow/no snow forecast 10 days away? Why give it the time of day? Makes no sense.

This is the information age (allegedly) and yet some people don’t seem to know the difference between professional and unprofessional actions, between experts and expertise and trolls and rumor spreaders trying to get people worked up. I don’t know what happened to our education system or our culture/society but we’ve been dumbed down.

Some people do it on purpose to hype ratings, others do it out of a lack of skill, others are hobbyists who may or may not be well-intentioned. But all of them should stop because the downside far outweighs the upside.

You should know one or more reliable sources of weather forecasts and rely on them and only them and ignore the rest. Especially a phone APP or something on Twitter or Facebook or any other social media IF it is NOT from a verifiable reliable source you know and trust. Don’t like it, heart it, quote it, or retweet it or share it.

DON’T do it. STOP it. “Don’t pay it no heed” as they say.

No forecast source including myself is always wrong or always right. We’re trying to predict THE FUTURE. That’s a job not for the faint of heart.

My long-term followers (and radio listeners) already know this because I’ve explained it on-air and in blogs a thousand times. But I know we pick up new followers and listeners all the time and some may lack this knowledge. But if you keep reading my blogs over time you’ll learn a lot and become a more sophisticated consumer of weather info even if some of it is over your head or confusing. I read things that are over my head routinely. But over time it becomes less so because bit by bit my understanding grows. Be a life learner. It works and it helps. Too many people stopped reading (serious type, like books) the last time a teacher forced them to read and they’re happy with that. Sadly. Bless their hearts.

As a friend of mine says, “life is hard, it’s even harder when you’re stupid”.

I don’t suffer fools gladly.

I’ve been in this thing for four decades. The truth is sometimes we CAN have confidence in a forecast 10 or more days from now and get it right. But most of the time the uncertainty is too high for any confidence and certainly too high for specifics. Sometimes we get the today forecast wrong let alone ten days from now, but most of the time we get today and the next 3-7 right.

Read this blog and WHEN and ONLY when I think a distant weather event is worth talking about because the confidence level is up will I write about it. I do not try to be the first to scare you or give you something to be excited about. I first try to get it right.

Dirty little secret:

I’ve shared this before but in case you are a new listener to my weather reports on 95.5 WSB Radio or a new follower of my blog or on Twitter...

It is COMMON for a computer model to show a big snow or ice storm on one run and then on the next run (just 6 hours later) it’s just rain! Then 12 hours later it goes back to snow/ice, then back to rain or maybe dry.

There are some 8 dozen different computer models, with that many, I can find something extreme on at least one of them almost every day or every week. One that shows snow/ice 7-15 days from now, or in the Spring a swarm of killer tornadoes 7-15 days from now! That’s the nature of Lorenz Chaos Theory in a non-linear system (aka The Butterfly Effect).

PROBABILITY CURVE AND DISTRIBUTION:

The above resulting in this:

THE ABOVE DOES NOT APPLY TO THIS WEEKEND BUT APPLIES TO ANY FORECAST 10-DAYS PLUS. 

So, out of context, such long-range specific forecasts are meaningless nonsense. Nailing such a thing from just one model would be pure luck with a false alarm ratio in the 95th percentile. Meaning for every one you get right you get 95 or more wrong.

I have the training to understand the context of the numerical prediction models.

This is an art and an imperfect science, but only the scientific approach works and requires sophisticated training and experience just like the medical field or engineering etc.

Point and click forecasting doesn’t cut it.

There are deterministic models and ensemble models. Most of the public doesn’t understand the difference or may not understand how they work. So it would be illogical for them to post them or comment on them.

First we look for the jet stream pattern to become favorable. After and ONLY after that pattern becomes established can we start to look for specific storms etc. A before B, as of now we have (A) projected, but A does not exist right now (yet) and maybe never will.

There’s a reason I give a 5-day forecast. Beyond that the skill of computer models and humans goes down too much, most of the time at least. There are exceptions.

My life as a weather forecaster, especially in this day and age:

Models are VIRTUAL REALITY, not actual reality. Sometimes I look at a computer model and agree, other times I see a model screen and I do this...

Bottom line is something could happen but lets use the scientific method and take it one step at a time and not get ahead of ourselves, don’t get over our skis.

For more follow me on Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.