All eyes are on the Caribbean Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this week as our next tropical system may form in the next 24 hours.

The National Hurricane Center has outlined an area that is favorable for tropical depression or tropical storm development west of Cuba.

This system is then forecast to strengthen quickly, potentially becoming a tropical storm or hurricane through Wednesday. At that point, the tropical system would receive the name “Helene”.

As of Monday morning, it is imperative to note that the tropical system is still disorganized, which means it will be difficult to discern an exact track and strength over the next 5 days -- forecast models will waver until a closed center of circulation develops within the tropical system.

However, there is a strong signal that the system will rapidly intensify, potentially becoming a hurricane as early as Wednesday before making landfall along the Florida Peninsula.

Below are the “spaghetti plot” of models for the potential tropical system. Bottom line: There is a strong signal that the future storm/hurricane will move through the Florida Panhandle, with Metro Atlanta lining up in the “right side” of the center of circulation.

The Futurecast Radar/Pressure model below is from the 00z run of the ECMWF.

Bottom Line

It’s too soon to know exactly when and where the potential hurricane will make landfall, but there is a strong signal that it will come ashore between Destin and Tampa, Florida.

With this trajectory, there is a strong chance that Metro Atlanta will be on the “right side” of the circulation, which is the side that brings strong winds, heavy rain, and potential tornadoes.

I will continue to monitor the development of this tropical system and track it for you on 95.5 WSB. Continue to monitor updates throughout the day, and throughout the week ahead.

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