Tricky forecast Thursday night-Friday morning

We have an old saying in the weather forecasting business: “Upper level lows, weatherman’s woes”.

Such a situation is shaping up Thursday afternoon into the first part of Friday as a closed mid-level low pressure area with lots of vorticity and cooling dynamics aloft traverses the Southeast states with a surface low reflection as a “Miller A” type.

Here is how the Atlanta National Weather Service Peachtree City puts it in their discussion:

Best odds for accumulating snow will be the Northern tier of mountain counties by Friday morning.

Surface temperatures will be too warm for snow for most of the Atlanta area. However, it’s the type of situation I’ve seen in the past that models don’t handle well, where the upper dynamics cool the atmosphere aloft so that IF precip falls at a FAST enough RATE snow can make it down to the surface even in Atlanta, even with temps of 40F.

Again this is NOT shown by the models and I’ve looked at dozens of them. It’s just something past experience tells you not to let your guard down about until the system is leaving and you know what’s what because models struggle to locate where the best omega (lift) will be.

Meaning snow can happen even where it is not currently in the local area forecast, it could just end up being a last minute surprise.

It’s never easy in the South with the rain/snow line and it’s difficult anywhere in the country with upper level woes (lows).

At least this does not look like a strong system aloft so far which would limit snow even whereever it ends up falling.